.svg)
Lithium Hydroxide prices have surged nearly 80% over the past month, now trading at over $18,000/t, with some sources reporting Lithium Carbonate prices exceeding $20,000/t. This is a positive signal for the industry, as most experts place the incentive price, the threshold at which new lithium mining projects become financially viable, between $17,000–$20,000/t.
To meet the growing demand, more lithium extraction and refining capacity is urgently needed. Global demand is forecast to quadruple over the next ten years, while in the UK it is expected to increase tenfold. The industry broadly agrees that we have entered the next price cycle.
But what is driving this sudden increase? Global lithium prices remain heavily influenced by China, which controls over 70% of refining capacity worldwide. Last year, China tightened lithium mining regulations, particularly in Jiangxi province, revoking expired licenses and auditing mines operated by companies such as CATL. These actions triggered a price spike at the end of 2025 and resulted in depleted domestic inventories, as numerous mines were closed for months. Replenishing these inventories to preferred levels is expected to take over a year.
At the same time, demand from Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), while still smaller than demand from electric vehicles, exceeded expectations in 2025 and is projected to continue growing. Demand from EV batteries remains the primary driver of the market.
Neither of these factors is expected to reverse over the next 12 months. As a result, higher prices are expected to persist, with further increases likely in 2026 as concerns over a supply deficit continue to shape market sentiment.
At TVL, we kept advancing while others paused. That discipline means we’re now ahead of most new entrants and in a prime position to capture demand as it returns. Our project is fully aligned with Europe’s expected growth trajectory through 2028, putting us on the front foot as the market accelerates.
Gemma Cooper, Chief Commercial Officer
.png)
