Refining the Future of Energy – Right Here in Teesside

Lithium Hydroxide prices have surged nearly 80% over the past month, now trading at over $18,000/t, with some sources reporting Lithium Carbonate prices exceeding $20,000/t. This is a positive signal for the industry, as most experts place the incentive price, the threshold at which new lithium mining projects become financially viable, between $17,000–$20,000/t.  

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To meet the growing demand, more lithium extraction and refining capacity is urgently needed. Global demand is forecast to quadruple over the next ten years, while in the UK it is expected to increase tenfold. The industry broadly agrees that we have entered the next price cycle.

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But what is driving this sudden increase? Global lithium prices remain heavily influenced by China, which controls over 70% of refining capacity worldwide. Last year, China tightened lithium mining regulations, particularly in Jiangxi province, revoking expired licenses and auditing mines operated by companies such as CATL. These actions triggered a price spike at the end of 2025 and resulted in depleted domestic inventories, as numerous mines were closed for months. Replenishing these inventories to preferred levels is expected to take over a year.

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At the same time, demand from Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), while still smaller than demand from electric vehicles, exceeded expectations in 2025 and is projected to continue growing. Demand from EV batteries remains the primary driver of the market.

Neither of these factors is expected to reverse over the next 12 months. As a result, higher prices are expected to persist, with further increases likely in 2026 as concerns over a supply deficit continue to shape market sentiment.

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At TVL, we kept advancing while others paused. That discipline means we’re now ahead of most new entrants and in a prime position to capture demand as it returns. Our project is fully aligned with Europe’s expected growth trajectory through 2028, putting us on the front foot as the market accelerates.

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Gemma Cooper, Chief Commercial Officer

Lithium, Leadership and Vision 2035

The UK Government has released its refreshed Critical Minerals Strategy – Vision 2035, setting out a renewed national plan to secure the minerals essential for clean energy, advanced manufacturing and industrial resilience. The strategy establishes clear demand projections, domestic production targets and a firm commitment to strengthening supply chain security through a combination of domestic capability and international partnerships.

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Critically, lithium is placed at the heart of the UK’s long-term industrial future, with the Government highlighting that lithium demand is expected to rise by 1,100 percent by 2035. The strategy sets a dedicated ambition for lithium: producing 50,000 tonnes of lithium (LCE) domestically by 2035, representing roughly 15 percent of national demand. This heightened focus reflects lithium’s central role in electric vehicles, battery energy storage, and the wider clean energy transition.

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Teesside is also recognised as one of the UK’s regional strengths for critical mineral processing, a significant validation of Tees Valley Lithium’s decision to anchor the UK’s flagship lithium hydroxide refinery on Teesside. The strategy places strong emphasis on the UK’s competitive advantage in midstream processing, precisely the part of the value chain TVL is delivering.

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New policy measures, including the proposed extension of energy support schemes, are welcome steps that create a more attractive environment for the large-scale investment the UK will require. While additional support will be necessary to meet the UK’s ambitious 2035 targets, the direction of travel is clear: domestic refining capacity is now recognised as a strategic national priority.

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For TVL, this strategy provides powerful confirmation that our approach has been the right one from the outset. Established well before the publication of Vision 2035, TVL has been progressing at speed — and the Government’s updated framework now firmly aligns with our mission to build a flexible, future-ready and globally competitive lithium refinery on Teesside.

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Download our full review of the new Strategy here.

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UK Critical Minerals Strategy in Full