Lithium markets remain volatile. While short-term disruptions like CATL’s mine shutdown in August caused price spikes, the structural picture is unchanged: demand is growing faster than bankable refining capacity, especially in Europe. Supply is increasing, but financing and qualification hurdles mean only a fraction of announced projects will reach production.
Pricing Trends
- Lithium Carbonate: Peaked at 85,000 yen/t in mid-August after the CATL shutdown, now back to ~73,500- 74,000 yen/t as restart news calmed the market. (Figure A)
- Lithium Hydroxide: Regained a premium over carbonate, reflecting ongoing demand from high-nickel cathode producers
- Spodumene: Prices remain week ($800-950/t) as oversupply persists, but discounts to carbonate suggest converters are capturing most margin.

Demand Outlook
- Global demand is rising ~17.5% y/y in 2025, adding nearly 200,000 tonnes LCE.
- EVs remain the dominant driver, with larger batteries for longer-range vehicles boosting intensity.
- Energy Storage Systems (ESS) are accelerating, particularly in China, but carry inventory risk.
- Chemistry mix: demand is increasing for LFP/LMFP, raising carbonate demand. Hydroxide demand remains strongest in Europe for high-nickel batteries.
Supply Side
- SC Insights highlight that Final Investment Decisions have collapsed, financing is a bottleneck.
- Outside China, refining capacity remains scarce. Europe still only has two operating lithium refineries.
Strategic Implications for TVL
- Feedstock flexibility is crucial: SC insights stress that technical-grade and off-spec products are increasingly traded on negotiated discounts. TVL’s ability to process varied intermediates is a competitive edge.
- Refining Gap in Europe means bankable projects like TVL are strategically positioned to serve OEMs demanding secure local supply.
- OPEX discipline: Benchmarking shows TVL’s costs globally competitive (Figure B).
- Market Timing: With large defects expected from 2027 onwards, TVL’s production start date aligns with the tightening market. (Figure C)

