August 2025 Market Snapshot

Lithium markets remain volatile. While short-term disruptions like CATL’s mine shutdown in August caused price spikes, the structural picture is unchanged: demand is growing faster than bankable refining capacity, especially in Europe. Supply is increasing, but financing and qualification hurdles mean only a fraction of announced projects will reach production.

Pricing Trends

  • Lithium Carbonate: Peaked at 85,000 yen/t in mid-August after the CATL shutdown, now back to ~73,500- 74,000 yen/t as restart news calmed the market. (Figure A)
  • Lithium Hydroxide: Regained a premium over carbonate, reflecting ongoing demand from high-nickel cathode producers
  • Spodumene: Prices remain week ($800-950/t) as oversupply persists, but discounts to carbonate suggest converters are capturing most margin.

Figure A: tradingeconomics.com

Demand Outlook

  • Global demand is rising ~17.5% y/y in 2025, adding nearly 200,000 tonnes LCE.
  • EVs remain the dominant driver, with larger batteries for longer-range vehicles boosting intensity.
  • Energy Storage Systems (ESS) are accelerating, particularly in China, but carry inventory risk.
  • Chemistry mix: demand is increasing for LFP/LMFP, raising carbonate demand. Hydroxide demand remains strongest in Europe for high-nickel batteries.

Supply Side

  • SC Insights highlight that Final Investment Decisions have collapsed, financing is a bottleneck.
  • Outside China, refining capacity remains scarce. Europe still only has two operating lithium refineries.

Strategic Implications for TVL

  • Feedstock flexibility is crucial: SC insights stress that technical-grade and off-spec products are increasingly traded on negotiated discounts. TVL’s ability to process varied intermediates is a competitive edge.
  • Refining Gap in Europe means bankable projects like TVL are strategically positioned to serve OEMs demanding secure local supply.
  • OPEX discipline: Benchmarking shows TVL’s costs globally competitive (Figure B).
  • Market Timing: With large defects expected from 2027 onwards, TVL’s production start date aligns with the tightening market. (Figure C)

Figure B: Source SC Insights benchmarking analysis

Figure C: Source SC Insights Webinar Lithium, CAM, and Risk June 2025
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